出版的前景與理由

隨著新媒體的崛起，傳統出版業和紙媒發展之路面臨著前所未有的挑戰。讀者興趣、閱讀習慣、信息渠道、購書行為等都深受移動互聯網影響，圖書出版行業格局也隨之改變。針對多樣化的需求，細分讀者群、制定特色化選題、進行差異化服務和營銷，越來越受到出版社重視。

作為出版人，我們常常思考出版的前景，今天我很愿意借此機會和中澳兩國的朋友共同探討一下。

一、出版的現狀，紙質書和電子書

2016年3月，AlphaGo和世界圍棋冠軍李世石的人機大戰引得全世界關注，人工智能首次戰勝了人類最高智慧。這是一個標志性的事件，證明技術正以迅猛的速度改變著世界，使傳統社會發生各種深刻變革。

在中國，就文化傳播領域而言，短短一二十年以來，從 BBS、博客到微博、微信，自媒體非常活躍，極大地影響了人們的交流方式、閱讀方式、書寫方式，出版方式也隨之發生變化。這些影響滲透進社會生活的各個層面，有可能打破現有的文化結構，重建新的文化形態。

在我們熟悉的文學出版領域，出現了如下的現象——

1、移動互聯網的興起使碎片化閱讀和淺閱讀流行。流行文學的出版版圖急速擴大，而嚴肅文學的版圖縮小。

在中國，如果把各類網文、網絡小說非常發達，如果將這些涵蓋進去，從閱讀的總量來說，互聯網時代，廣義的文學閱讀并未減少反而大大增加，但傳統嚴肅文學在擴大了的市場中份額減少，它的絕對需求也被稀釋了。

2、載體發生根本性變化，紙書電子書并行存在。

網絡新媒體盛行，新興載體對紙質圖書造成巨大沖擊。雖然2016年，英國行業調查機構尼爾森發布的“年度書籍與消費者報告”顯示，電子書的銷量在不斷下滑，而紙質書的銷量則不斷上漲，這看似給傳統出版業帶來了信心，但從長遠來看，紙質書的輝煌不太可能再現。從環保的角度看，發現了新載體的人類也不可能再走回頭路。作為人類書寫的載體，紙上印刷只是一個階段。就像從前紙書替代了竹簡，屏幕、電子傳輸可能終將替代紙質出版，而關鍵性的轉變將依賴電子閱讀器的技術革新實現突破。

但這個結局短期還未到來，在相當長的過渡時間內，我相信紙書和電子書仍然會是并行的態勢。就像電視沒有讓電影消失，電子表沒有讓瑞士機械表消亡一樣，在這個階段，紙書的出路應該是向特色化、專業化、精品化發展。如果牽強地加以類比，電影、瑞士表、紙書比之電視、電子表、電子書，他們的優勢是，除了實用性，還具有不可替代的文化附加值。紙書和電子書分別適合承載不同類別的內容，也分別對應不同的閱讀人群。

3、現階段電子書成為紙書的補充和延伸。

經過近年在數字出版方面的探索，電子書已成為了各出版社紙質出版的重要補充和延伸，kindle等電子書的開發和利用也為我們出版社帶來了新的利潤增長點，有些書的電子版收入已經超過紙質版收入。

再細分到文學期刊這個特殊的出版類別，比如我所在的《花城》雜志，它隸屬于花城出版社，是中國著名的嚴肅文學期刊，80年代發行量曾達70萬份，但90年代后，由于文化市場日益商品化娛樂化，和所有期刊一樣，銷量持續下滑。而新媒體時代并沒有使得這個趨勢加劇，訂數反而開始回升。原因在于，我們利用了新媒體便捷的宣傳手段，使得讀者更加了解我們，也更便于互動和訂閱。借新媒體之力，我們做了微信公眾號、線下沙龍活動網絡直播等等，擴大雜志影響力，從而擴大了銷售。同時，我們也發行了電子版，海外的讀者、習慣在網上閱讀的年輕人，可以方便地訂閱到和紙刊同樣的內容。

對于一個人口基數龐大、文化傳統深厚的國家來說，文學讀者群依然巨大，文學出版依然有很大空間。我們仍然認為內容是關鍵，內容做好之后，用戶可以自由選擇任意一種載體，出版社依然能憑借質量良好的內容獲得收益。

所以，新技術不會敲響出版業的喪鐘，但會促使出版業轉型，新機遇、新贏家就在轉型之中產生。

而嚴肅文學的真正危機所在，是泛娛樂化的趨勢，所謂“娛樂至死”是一個世界性的問題。這是另一個話題。

二、轉型策略：守護優質資源，開拓新媒體融合

1、營銷方式的拓展

目前，對傳統出版社來說，紙質圖書的銷售依然是利潤支柱。除了傳統的渠道，互聯網模式也在不斷完善中。

在營銷策略上，最基本的方法是盡可能延長圖書的銷售壽命。在中國，按照傳統的圖書經營模式，新書在實體店上架的銷售時間大約是2-3個月，如果動銷情況不理想還會被提前下架。而網上書店因為上架成本低，在架時間長，已成為圖書銷售的重要途徑，但它的問題是折扣也很低，出版社利潤空間被大大擠壓。于是除了當當、亞馬遜等大型電商外，各出版社紛紛開發了自己的渠道，即微信宣傳+天貓/微店銷售的自媒體電商。自媒體電商規模小、品種少，與品類齊全、排行榜效應強的大型電商不可相提并論，但自媒體電商有較高的性價比、較強的用戶黏性、良好的用戶信任度，可以形成持續的消費能力，未來會有更大的發展空間。

2、內容的深度開發

市場的熱點常常是我們深入思考的起點。

2014年開始，《鬼吹燈》《盜墓筆記》《三生三世十里桃花》等一波又一波的熱門IP入侵到我們的生活……從網絡文學形式到紙質書出版，從圖書改編到電影或電視劇，再開發游戲等周邊產品，以IP為核心的多媒體生態鏈正逐漸形成。有研究報告指出，隨著中國互聯網市場進入內容時代，IP+精品制作模式將逐漸成為未來市場中的代表類型。

而熱鬧的IP爭奪大戰背后，是對優秀內容的渴求，一個IP的成功絕不僅僅是媒體的烘托，內容的支撐才是關鍵。傳統出版業的優勢正在于積累和掌握了大量的優質作家資源，雖然與流行網文相比，嚴肅文學作品在深度開發版權資源方面有難度，但IP熱給我們的啟示，迫使我們思考如何做好版權的后續開發運營，因為傳統出版業的出路正在于此。我們要向國外的出版商學習，逐漸向版權經紀人的角色轉換。目前，各家出版社都已起步進行版權資源的多元開發利用，在簽訂圖書版權的同時努力獲得多種權利，打造影視、有聲書、動漫、游戲等周邊產品，使內容的價值進一步被挖掘出來。

就內容的開發，我再以文學期刊來舉例。

在中國，與圖書出版的市場化發展方向不同，文學雜志走的是專業化的路線，有著更加純粹的藝術追求。長期以來，中國有很多優秀影視作品的母本均來自文學期刊，因為優秀文學作品首先會在文學期刊刊登。有篇文章題目就叫《【收獲】雜志才是最大的IP好么》，舉了幾十個首發于《收獲》而改編成著名影視作品的例子，它們有：《大紅燈籠高高掛》《陽光燦爛的日子》《茶館》《甲方乙方》《活著》等等。張藝謀甚至曾在九十年代和《收獲》雜志簽過一個“首看權”，編輯部會在刊物沒有面世前，先將清樣寄給他看。直到前些年，一些大的影視公司，還會有專門的部門負責閱讀全國的重點文學期刊，《花城》就是被閱讀的對象之一。由《花城》首發而改變成影視作品的也有不少，如路遙的《平凡的世界》、蘇童《離婚指南》、畢飛宇《青衣》、劉震云《我不是潘金蓮》等等。

所以，《花城》雜志致力于做出版鏈條的前端工作，同時積極將作品引入圖書出版及其他的版權開發。比如，2016年，《花城》雜志首發了呂新和北村兩位先鋒小說作家的新作《下弦月》和《安慰書》，隨后花城出版社推出了兩部單行本。目前，兩本書已登上了國內多個好書榜，也有多家影視公司接洽。

3、多媒體融合之路是出版社未來的方向

掌握優質版權資源，并進行多媒體延伸開發是出版社未來的的生存之道。鑒于此，花城出版社前兩年研發了“花城多元融合傳播運營平臺”項目，現正進入測試階段。此項目基于《花城》雜志和花城出版社的品牌資源，延伸出近三十個子項目，目標是建成一個集數字閱讀、作者（作品）孵化、作者（作品）簽約、自助出版、版權（數字版權、有聲版權、影視版權、游戲版權等）運營、版權代理等各項功能為一體的融合數字平臺。目的在于構建現代傳播體系，實現對受眾的廣覆蓋，可加快創設中央編輯部的全媒體采集平臺生產發布體系，實現內容的集成化、形態的多元化和傳播的平臺化。

這個轉型對一個傳統的出版企業來說是嚴峻的挑戰，面臨諸多困難，既需要編輯的眼光和執行力也需要資本的支持和體制的配合。但它又是關乎未來生存的機遇。

在人類文明史中，語言文字是進步的基礎，包括其衍生產品在內，無論載體有何種變化，出版物者都是思想者、知識界和讀者間不可或缺的橋梁，承擔著文化和知識傳播的重任。優秀出版物的交流，也是歷來各國人民間深入了解、增進友誼的重要渠道。作為一名從業三十多年的出版人，我這樣看待我的工作：我堅持做的，無外乎是促進文化積累和文化交流。所以，除了認真編輯刊登國內作家最新作品的《花城》雜志外，從2009年開始，我還策劃出版了大型文學譯叢“藍色東歐”，計劃以十年甚至更長的時間，整理出版中東歐當代經典文學作品100本。目前已經出版三十多種。這是一項艱巨的工程，但我相信對中國讀者了解中東歐、了解世界，將有著深遠的意義。

謝謝大家！

Prospects and Reasons of Publishing

Zhu Yanling

With the rise of new media, the development of the traditional publishing industry and paper media is facing an unprecedented challenge. Readers’ interests, reading habits, information channels, book purchases and other activities are deeply affected by mobile Internet services. The structure of this industry will also undergo change. In view of the needs of diversification, grouping readers, developing selected topics, providing differentiated services and marketing have attracted the attention of more and more publishers.

As publishers, we often contemplate the prospects of publication. Today I am willing to take this opportunity to discuss this topic with friends from both China and Australia.

I. The status quo of publication, paper books and e-books

In March 2016, the competition between AlphaGo and world go champion Lee Sedol attracted worldwide attention as artificial intelligence defeated the highest level of human wisdom for the first time. This was a landmark that technology is changing the world at a rapid pace, bringing about profound changes to conventional society.

In China, in the field of cultural transmission, the self-media from BBS, blogs to micro blogs, WeChat have greatly affected people’s methods of communication, reading and writing in such short one or two decades . The methods of publishing have also been changed. These effects have penetrated into all aspects of society, and it is possible to break the existing cultural structure and rebuild new cultural forms.

In the literary publishing field we are familiar with, there are the following phenomena:

1. The rise of mobile Internet services have made fragmented reading and shallow reading popular. The publication of popular literature has expanded rapidly and the layout of serious literature has become narrower.

In China where many varieties of web articles and network novels are highly developed, generalized literary reading has not decreased but greatly increased in the Internet era if these are included. But the share of traditional serious literature in the expanded market has reduced and its absolute demand has also been diluted.

2. Carriers have undergone a fundamental change, with paper books and e-books existing in parallel.

New network media prevails, so the emerging carrier has had a huge impact on the paper books. In 2016, according to the "Annual Books and Consumer Reports" released by Nelson, the British Industry Survey Agency, the sales of e-books are declining, while the sales of paper books are rising. This seems to have given a boost of confidence to the traditional publishing industry. But in the long run, the glory experienced by paper books is unlikely to recur. From the perspective of environmental protection, human beings who have found a new carrier cannot go back. As a carrier of human writing, paper printing is only a historical phase. Just as paper books replaced bamboo, the screen reading and electronic transmission may eventually replace the paper publication. The key change will rely on the technological innovation in electronic reader to achieve a breakthrough.

But in the short term this outcome has not yet arrived. I believe that paper books and e-books will exist in parallel over an extended transition period. Just as Television did not cause movies to disappear and electronic watches did not cause Swiss mechanical watches to die out, at this stage, the way out for paper books should be specialized, professional and exquisite. If we want to compare films, Swiss watches, paper books and the television, electronic watches and e-books, we must admit that the latter have irreplaceable cultural value in addition to practicality. Paper books and e-books were suitable for carrying different categories of content, corresponding to different readers.

3. At this stage, e-books become a supplement and extension of paper books.

After years of exploration in digital publishing, e-books have become an important supplement and extension of publishers’ paper publishing. The development and use of Kindles and other e-book readers have brought a new profit growth point for publishers, for the income of some electronic versions of books has been more than that of paper versions.

Let’s have a look at literary journals, a special publishing category, such as the Flower City magazine I am working for. It is operated by Huacheng Publishing House, which is a famous journal for serious Chinese literature. In the 1980s, it had a circulation of 700,000 copies, but after the 1990s, the sales volume continued to decline as a result of the growing commercialization of the cultural market. However, the new media era did not aggravate this trend, for subscriptions began to rise. The reason for this was the use of new media and convenient means of publicity, enabling readers to better understand us, interact with us and subscribe to the magazine. With the power of new media, we have applied for an official account on WeChat and broadcasted offline salon activities on the internet to expand influence and thus sales. At the same time, we also released the electronic version for overseas readers and young people who are used to reading online, so that they are able to subscribe to the same content and paper without hassle.

For a country with a large population and a deep cultural tradition like China, literary readership is still huge and so is the potential for the publication of literature. We still believe that the content is the key. After the good completion of the content, users can freely choose any kind of carries and publishers can make profits relying on contents with good quality.

Therefore, new technology will not sound the death bell of the publishing industry, but will promote the transformation of the industry itself, with new opportunities and new winners emerging in the transformation process.

The real crisis of serious literature is the trend of excessive entertainment. The so-called “entertainment to death” is a worldwide problem. This is another topic.

II. The transformation strategy: guarding high quality resources and integrating with new media 

1. The expansion of marketing modes

At present, for traditional publishers, the sales of paper books are still a pillar of profit. Not only are the traditional channels, but also the Internet mode is constantly being improved.

The most basic marketing strategy is to extend the sales life of books as much as possible. In China, with traditional book business models, the sales time of a new book on the store shelves is about 2-3 months. If the sale is not ideal, it will be removed from the shelves at an earlier date. Online bookstores, due to the low cost and long shelve time, have become an important means of selling books. But the problem is that they offer very low discounts, greatly squeezing the profit margins of publishing houses. In addition to Dangdang, Amazon and other large e-commerce, publishers have developed their own channels, that is, self-media e-businesses, including WeChat publicity and Tmall/micro shops. Due to their small scale and limited varieties, they are different from the large electric businesses which have a complete list of goods and strong rankings effects. However, since they have a higher cost performance, stronger the user viscosity, good user credibility, self-media businesses can create a sustained spending power and will have more room for development in the future.

2. The deep development of content

The hot spots in the market are often the starting point for our in-depth thinking.

Since 2014, Candle in the Tomb, Tomb Robber’s Journal, Ten Great III of Peach Blossom and other popular works have appeared in our life. A multimedia ecological chain centered by IP has gradually formed, from the form of Internet literature to the publishing of paper books, from books to films or TV series or even games and other peripheral products. Studies have shown that the exquisite IP+ production model will gradually become the representative of the future market player with the Chinese Internet market entering into the content era.

Behind the busy IP war is the desire for excellent content. The success of an IP is not just a result of media support, but the content plays a key role. The advantage of the traditional publishing industry is the accumulation and mastering of a large number of high quality writer resources. It is more difficult to further explore the copyright of serious literary work than Internet articles. However, the IP heat shows that we should consider means to carry out follow-up development and the operation of copyright, because this is the way out for the traditional publishing industry. We shall learn from foreign publishers, and gradually shift the role to copyright brokers. At present, various publishers have started to use the diversified development of copyright resources, obtained a variety of rights for creating film and television, audio books, animation, games and other peripheral products while signing the rights of books, so that the value of the content is further excavated.

I then take literature journals as an example to talk about content development.

In China, unlike the direction of book publishing market development, literary magazines follow a professional path with a much purer pursuit of art. For a long time, the original texts of many excellent films and television works have come from literary journals, because outstanding literary works are first published in journals. An article named Harvest magazine is the largest IP, cited dozens of first published works in the Harvest which have been adapted into famous films and TV series. They are Raise the Red Lantern, In the Heat of the Sun, Teahouse, The Dream Factory, Lifetimes Living and so on. Zhang Yimou even signed an agreement “first to read” the articles in the Harvest magazine. The editorial department will send the final proof to him before publication. Until a few years ago, some large film and television companies had dedicated departments responsible for reading the country’s key literary journals. Flower City is one of the works to be read. There are many articles in the Flower City adapted into films and television works, such as Lu Yao’s Ordinary World, Su Tong’s Divorce Guide, Bi Feiyu’s The Moon Opera, Liu Zhenyun’s I Did Not Kill My Husband and so on.

Therefore, the Flower City is committed to carrying out the upstream work of the chain, while actively introducing works into books and other copyright development. For example, in 2016, the magazine published “Last Month” and “Comfort Book”, both new works by Lyu Xin and Bei Cun, two pioneering novel writers. After that, Huacheng Publishing House released two kinds of offprints. At present, both books have been on a number of domestic good book lists and a number of film and television companies have contacted us.

3. Multimedia integration is the future direction of the press

Grasping quality copyright resources and implementing multimedia extensive development are the way of the survival of publishers in the future. In view of this, Huacheng Publishing House developed a project of Huacheng Multi-Fusion Spreading Operation Platform two years ago, which is now under test. Based on the brand resources of Flower City magazine and Huacheng Publishing House, this project is extended to nearly 30 sub-projects. Its goal is to build digital platforms integrating digital reading, author (works) incubation, author (works) signing, self-publishing, copyright (digital, audio, film and television, game copyrights, etc.) operations, copyright agency and other functions. The purpose is to build a modern communication system to cover a large audience. With that, we can speed up the creation of a production and distribution system based on the whole media collection platform of the central editorial department to integrate content, diversify channels and build a disseminating platform.

This transformation is a severe challenge for a traditional publishing company. Facing many difficulties, we need editorial vision and execution, and also capital and system support. It is also about seizing future opportunities for survival.

In the history of human civilization, language has formed the basis of progress. Regardless of changes in the carrier, including its derivatives, publishers are the indispensable bridge between thinkers, intellectuals and readers. They undertake the responsibility of disseminating culture and knowledge. The exchange of excellent publications is also an important channel for people to understand and enhance friendship. As a practitioner with thirty years of practice, I insist on doing nothing more than promoting cultural accumulation and exchange. So, in addition to carefully editing the latest works of the domestic writers who published in the Flower City magazine, I also planned the publication of a large-scale translation of literature Blue Eastern Europe from 2009 onwards. I have planned to collect and publish 100 classic contemporary literary works of Eastern Europe. More than 30 kinds have been published at present. This is a daunting project, but I believe that for Chinese readers to understand Central and Eastern Europe, and the world as a whole, it will be of far-reaching significance.

Thank you all!